{"market_data":{"msa_name":"Columbus-Dublin-Westerville","msa_population":2242000,"median_household_income":68200,"cost_of_living_index":94,"unemployment_rate":3.2,"yoy_rent_growth":4.2,"vacancy_rate":9.8,"metro_gdp_billions":182,"metro_gdp_source":"Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2023","rent_to_income_pct":17.5,"rent_to_income_note":"3-mile median HHI ~$102K vs. $1,785 avg rent ($21,420/yr)","osu_enrollment":60046,"osu_enrollment_source":"OSU Statistical Summary, Columbus campus, 2025","westerville_schools_enrollment":14250,"westerville_schools_rating":"Excellent with Distinction (16 consecutive years)","westerville_schools_source":"Westerville City Schools / SchoolMatch","franklin_county_census_growth":"Grown every Census decade since 1900 (U.S. Census Bureau)","map_image_url":"https://placehold.co/1200x600/1a1a2e/3B82F6?text=MSA+%26+Submarket+Map","map_caption":"Columbus MSA — Westerville / New Albany submarket.","metro_overview_md":"The Columbus, Ohio Metropolitan Statistical Area is home to approximately 2.15 million residents, making it the 14th largest city in the United States (32nd largest MSA). The region has added over 120,000 residents since 2010, driven by a diversified economy anchored in healthcare, logistics, technology, and advanced manufacturing.\n\nColumbus benefits from a young, educated workforce — median age 32 — and one of the highest college-graduate densities in the Midwest. The metro's cost of living sits approximately 6% below the national average, while median household income has grown 4.2% annually over the past five years, creating a widening affordability advantage that attracts both residents and employers.","metro_snapshot":{"msa_population":"2,242,000","population_growth_5yr":"+5.8%","median_household_income":"$68,200","cost_of_living_index":"92 (vs 100 national)","major_airport":"John Glenn Columbus International (CMH)","fortune_500_hqs":"5 (Cardinal Health, Nationwide, AEP, Huntington Bancshares, Vertiv) + Intel $28B campus nearby"},"employment_narrative_md":"Columbus has one of the most diversified and growing employment bases in the Midwest. The Ohio State University — with 60,000+ students and 30,000+ employees — anchors the metro, while OhioHealth and Nationwide Children's Hospital drive healthcare growth. The tech sector has exploded with Amazon AWS, Google, and Intel (a $28B semiconductor campus under construction in New Albany, 4 miles from Fairmont) anchoring the market. Anduril Industries recently committed a major defense manufacturing hub to the Columbus area, adding significant long-term demand.","top_employers":[{"employer":"The Ohio State University","employees":30000,"sector":"Education & Research"},{"employer":"OhioHealth","employees":35000,"sector":"Healthcare"},{"employer":"Nationwide Children's Hospital","employees":16000,"sector":"Healthcare"},{"employer":"JPMorgan Chase","employees":18000,"sector":"Finance"},{"employer":"Amazon (AWS & Logistics)","employees":15000,"sector":"Technology & Logistics"},{"employer":"Intel (New Albany campus)","employees":3000,"sector":"Technology"},{"employer":"Nationwide Insurance","employees":14000,"sector":"Finance"},{"employer":"Google","employees":5000,"sector":"Technology"}],"sector_breakdown":[{"sector":"Healthcare","pct":22},{"sector":"Logistics & Distribution","pct":15},{"sector":"Government & Education","pct":14},{"sector":"Manufacturing","pct":12},{"sector":"Technology","pct":10},{"sector":"Finance & Insurance","pct":9},{"sector":"Retail & Hospitality","pct":8},{"sector":"Other","pct":10}],"population_narrative_md":"Central Ohio has seen steady population growth, outpacing the national average over the past decade. Columbus is the 14th largest city in the United States and the 2nd largest in the Midwest after Chicago. Net domestic in-migration has been positive since 2018, with the metro attracting residents from higher-cost markets in the Northeast and West Coast. The 25-34 age cohort — the primary renter demographic — has grown 8.2% since 2015, supporting sustained multifamily demand. Franklin County has grown every Census decade since 1900 — a durability record unmatched in Ohio.","population_trend":[{"year":2015,"population":2012000},{"year":2016,"population":2035000},{"year":2017,"population":2056000},{"year":2018,"population":2074000},{"year":2019,"population":2095000},{"year":2020,"population":2111000},{"year":2021,"population":2120000},{"year":2022,"population":2132000},{"year":2023,"population":2186000},{"year":2024,"population":2216000},{"year":2025,"population":2242000}],"supply_demand_narrative_md":"Columbus experienced a historic supply wave in 2025 with 9,093 units delivered — the highest in the MSA's history. However, this supply cycle is already reversing sharply: 2026 deliveries drop 43% to 5,153 units, and 2027-2028 pipeline is minimal as construction starts collapsed amid elevated costs (+40% since 2020) and tighter lending. This supply cliff creates a powerful rent growth tailwind for existing Class A assets like Fairmont. Westerville specifically has seen structurally limited new supply due to land constraints and zoning restrictions, insulating Fairmont from direct competition.","supply_demand":[{"year":"2019","deliveries":4100,"absorption":3900},{"year":"2020","deliveries":3200,"absorption":2800},{"year":"2021","deliveries":3600,"absorption":5100},{"year":"2022","deliveries":4200,"absorption":4500},{"year":"2023","deliveries":4800,"absorption":4100},{"year":"2024","deliveries":3500,"absorption":4400},{"year":"2025","deliveries":9093,"absorption":6200},{"year":"2026P","deliveries":5153,"absorption":5800}],"vacancy_trend":[{"year":2019,"vacancy":5.8},{"year":2020,"vacancy":6.2},{"year":2021,"vacancy":4.1},{"year":2022,"vacancy":4.5},{"year":2023,"vacancy":5},{"year":2024,"vacancy":7.2},{"year":2025,"vacancy":9.8}],"rent_growth_history":[{"year":2019,"submarket":3.2,"msa":2.8,"national":2.5},{"year":2020,"submarket":1.8,"msa":1.5,"national":0.8},{"year":2021,"submarket":8.5,"msa":7.2,"national":11},{"year":2022,"submarket":6.1,"msa":5.4,"national":5.8},{"year":2023,"submarket":3.8,"msa":3.2,"national":2.2},{"year":2024,"submarket":3.5,"msa":3,"national":2},{"year":2025,"submarket":3.2,"msa":2.8,"national":2.3}],"rent_comparables":[{"name":"Easton View","distance":"8.5 mi","units":240,"year_built":2020,"avg_rent":1620,"avg_sf":840,"rent_per_sf":1.58,"occupancy":94,"renovated":false},{"name":"Flats on 5th","distance":"6.2 mi","units":195,"year_built":2021,"avg_rent":1650,"avg_sf":860,"rent_per_sf":1.65,"occupancy":93.5,"renovated":false},{"name":"Polaris Towne Center","distance":"7.1 mi","units":310,"year_built":2019,"avg_rent":1640,"avg_sf":870,"rent_per_sf":1.74,"occupancy":95,"renovated":false},{"name":"Dalton Residences","distance":"1.8 mi","units":167,"year_built":2023,"avg_rent":1680,"avg_sf":905,"rent_per_sf":1.83,"occupancy":92,"renovated":false},{"name":"Reserve at Polaris","distance":"6.8 mi","units":220,"year_built":2022,"avg_rent":1700,"avg_sf":920,"rent_per_sf":1.81,"occupancy":93,"renovated":false},{"name":"Fairmont Apartments","distance":"—","units":219,"year_built":2025,"avg_rent":1785,"avg_sf":928,"rent_per_sf":1.92,"occupancy":92,"renovated":false,"is_subject":true},{"name":"Camden New Albany","distance":"2.1 mi","units":400,"year_built":2022,"avg_rent":1720,"avg_sf":950,"rent_per_sf":1.71,"occupancy":91,"renovated":false},{"name":"Arlo Apartments","distance":"5.4 mi","units":285,"year_built":2023,"avg_rent":1850,"avg_sf":980,"rent_per_sf":1.95,"occupancy":93,"renovated":false},{"name":"Meridian at Easton","distance":"9.2 mi","units":350,"year_built":2021,"avg_rent":1920,"avg_sf":1020,"rent_per_sf":2.05,"occupancy":94,"renovated":false}],"loss_to_lease":[{"unit_type":"1BR-S","in_place":1536,"market":1622,"gap_pct":5.3},{"unit_type":"1BR-L","in_place":1466,"market":1516,"gap_pct":3.3},{"unit_type":"2BR","in_place":1963,"market":2048,"gap_pct":4.2},{"unit_type":"3BR","in_place":2282,"market":2561,"gap_pct":10.9}],"lease_up_pace":[{"month":"Mar '25","units":11},{"month":"Apr","units":3},{"month":"May","units":18},{"month":"Jun","units":33},{"month":"Jul","units":20},{"month":"Aug","units":31},{"month":"Sep","units":19},{"month":"Oct","units":25},{"month":"Nov","units":22},{"month":"Dec","units":10}],"occupancy_tracking":[{"quarter":"Q2 '22","fairmont":null,"franklin_co":96.8,"columbus_msa":94.3},{"quarter":"Q3 '22","fairmont":null,"franklin_co":95.5,"columbus_msa":94},{"quarter":"Q4 '22","fairmont":null,"franklin_co":92.9,"columbus_msa":91.8},{"quarter":"Q1 '23","fairmont":null,"franklin_co":89.3,"columbus_msa":90.7},{"quarter":"Q2 '23","fairmont":null,"franklin_co":84.6,"columbus_msa":90.2},{"quarter":"Q3 '23","fairmont":null,"franklin_co":81.4,"columbus_msa":90.7},{"quarter":"Q4 '23","fairmont":null,"franklin_co":83.5,"columbus_msa":90},{"quarter":"Q1 '24","fairmont":58.3,"franklin_co":87.8,"columbus_msa":90},{"quarter":"Q2 '24","fairmont":80.5,"franklin_co":90.6,"columbus_msa":90.3},{"quarter":"Q3 '24","fairmont":88.7,"franklin_co":88.6,"columbus_msa":90.2},{"quarter":"Q4 '24","fairmont":92.2,"franklin_co":86,"columbus_msa":90.5},{"quarter":"Q1 '25","fairmont":94,"franklin_co":88,"columbus_msa":90.8},{"quarter":"Q2 '25","fairmont":96,"franklin_co":89,"columbus_msa":91},{"quarter":"Q3 '25","fairmont":94,"franklin_co":89,"columbus_msa":90.5},{"quarter":"Q4 '25","fairmont":93,"franklin_co":90,"columbus_msa":90.2},{"quarter":"Q1 '26","fairmont":92,"franklin_co":90,"columbus_msa":90.5}],"midwest_population_comparison":[{"city":"Columbus","growth_pct":1.38},{"city":"Indianapolis","growth_pct":1.24},{"city":"Kansas City","growth_pct":1.15},{"city":"U.S. Avg","growth_pct":1},{"city":"Minneapolis","growth_pct":0.95},{"city":"Cincinnati","growth_pct":0.88},{"city":"Chicago","growth_pct":0.83},{"city":"Detroit","growth_pct":0.65},{"city":"Cleveland","growth_pct":0.26},{"city":"St. Louis","growth_pct":0.25}],"rent_by_bedroom":{"one_br":[{"name":"Polaris Towne Center","rent":1230},{"name":"Easton View","rent":1290},{"name":"Flats on 5th","rent":1320},{"name":"Camden New Albany","rent":1390},{"name":"Dalton Residences","rent":1410},{"name":"Reserve at Polaris","rent":1440},{"name":"Fairmont","rent":1507,"is_subject":true},{"name":"Arlo Apartments","rent":1540},{"name":"Meridian at Easton","rent":1580}],"two_br":[{"name":"Polaris Towne Center","rent":1480},{"name":"Easton View","rent":1530},{"name":"Camden New Albany","rent":1620},{"name":"Flats on 5th","rent":1660},{"name":"Dalton Residences","rent":1710},{"name":"Reserve at Polaris","rent":1740},{"name":"Fairmont","rent":1933,"is_subject":true},{"name":"Arlo Apartments","rent":1980},{"name":"Meridian at Easton","rent":2050}],"three_br":[{"name":"Camden New Albany","rent":1950},{"name":"Polaris Towne Center","rent":1990},{"name":"Dalton Residences","rent":2060},{"name":"Flats on 5th","rent":2090},{"name":"Fairmont","rent":2254,"is_subject":true},{"name":"Reserve at Polaris","rent":2310},{"name":"Arlo Apartments","rent":2380},{"name":"Meridian at Easton","rent":2450}]},"coc_progression":[{"year":"Yr 1","coc":7.53,"io":true},{"year":"Yr 2","coc":8.47,"io":true},{"year":"Yr 3","coc":8,"io":true},{"year":"Yr 4","coc":9.2,"io":true},{"year":"Yr 5","coc":7.9,"io":false},{"year":"Yr 6","coc":8.25,"io":false},{"year":"Yr 7","coc":9.16,"io":false}],"market_risks":[{"risk":"Employer Concentration","detail":"While diversified, healthcare represents 22% of employment. A major hospital system downsizing could impact the submarket.","mitigation":"The top 10 employers collectively represent less than 15% of total metro employment. No single employer accounts for more than 3%."},{"risk":"Interest Rate Sensitivity","detail":"Rising rates could cause cap rates to expand, reducing exit valuations.","mitigation":"Gray Capital's conservative underwriting models exit cap rates 50-75 bps above acquisition cap rate. The deal structure uses fixed-rate debt, eliminating floating rate exposure during the hold."},{"risk":"New Supply in Adjacent Submarkets","detail":"Several Class A developments are under construction within 5 miles.","mitigation":"Fairmont's 15-year tax abatement and Class A quality position it competitively against new supply. The property's institutional-grade amenities and Westerville's supply-constrained submarket provide durable competitive advantages."},{"risk":"Lease-Up Execution Risk","detail":"Concession burn-off could take longer than projected if Columbus supply remains elevated or macro conditions weaken.","mitigation":"No renovation execution risk — Fairmont is brand-new 2025 construction with zero capex required. Concession burn-off modeled conservatively over 3-4 years. Deal works at 3% rent growth with 12.5%+ LP IRR."}],"midwest_thesis":[{"icon":"DollarSign","headline":"Lower Basis, Higher Yield","description":"Midwest acquisitions at $130-160K/unit vs. $250-400K+ in Sun Belt and Coastal — generating stronger day-one cash flow."},{"icon":"Shield","headline":"Affordable Rents = Sticky Residents","description":"Average rent-to-income ratios below 25% mean lower turnover and more resilient demand through economic cycles."},{"icon":"Briefcase","headline":"Diversified Employment","description":"Healthcare, logistics, manufacturing, and growing tech sectors reduce single-employer risk."},{"icon":"TrendingDown","headline":"Limited New Supply","description":"Construction starts per capita in Midwest metros are 40-60% below Sun Belt markets, protecting existing properties from oversupply."},{"icon":"Users","headline":"Less Institutional Competition","description":"Fewer institutional buyers chasing Midwest deals means better pricing and less compressed cap rates."},{"icon":"BarChart3","headline":"Population Stability + Growth","description":"Midwest metros aren't shrinking — they're growing steadily in the corridors where jobs are concentrating."}],"data_sources":"CoStar Group, U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, Gray Capital proprietary research (Gray Reports), and public filings. Market data as of Q4 2025."}}